Office Hours: Will Progressive Populists Triumph Over Establishment Dems?

Friends,

Are we witnessing the takeover of the Democratic Party by its progressive wing? And, if so, will that help the Dems in their races with cowardly Republicans this fall, or hurt them?

A new generation of Democrats — some calling themselves social democrats — have been elected mayors of New York, Seattle, and effectively Washington, D.C. And a growing number of them have toppled incumbents and establishment Democrats — in Colorado, New York, and elsewhere.

But establishment Dems are fighting back, particularly since the implosion of Graham Platner’s campaign in Maine. They’re calling the progressive populists “too extreme” or “too far left” for the electorate. But maybe the electorate isn’t as easily mapped on to the old “left” versus “right” continuum. Maybe voters in both parties have turned anti-establishment and populist.

I’ve spent much of the past week talking with leading Democrats, campaign advisers, and people I consider among the wisest political thinkers in America about what they foresee for the Democratic Party and its candidates, especially going into the midterms. Given what’s happened to the Republican Party under Trump, I asked them which part of the Democratic Party is likely to triumph — establishment Democrats or insurgent progressive populists — and whether this will help or hurt Dems in the critical midterms.

I’ve grouped their answers into the following categories:

Read more