Australia’s ‘barking mad’ bet on nuclear submarines – the AUKUS deal five years on

When the trilateral security partnership between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia was announced in 2021, few were as bewildered as defence and security analyst Hugh White.

I thought to myself “this is barking mad, this won’t work”. But I was very much in a minority back then.

Five years later, White isn’t alone in his scepticism of the multi-billion dollar project.

A recent survey by the University of Sydney’s US Studies Centre found less than a quarter of respondents believe the Australian government has properly explained the rationale for AUKUS.

White attributes this to the lack of information that was delivered at the time.

It’s important to remember that the AUKUS as we know it now was not the AUKUS that was announced in 2021.

Back then, there was no idea of what submarines we were gonna buy. There was no timeline. There was no price.

You couldn’t raise all the issues that people are now focused on because the facts just weren’t there.

Since then, AUKUS has managed to survive multiple leadership changes, national scrutiny and public inquiries in all three countries.

But the US government that signed up to the agreement looks very different to the one it is today.

AUKUS was very much a symbol of Australia’s commitment to supporting the United States. Well now, particularly under Donald Trump, it’s clear that actually the United States is not serious about that.

Disclosure statement & credits

Hugh White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Newsclips in this episode from The Guardian, 10 News, News24, Bloomberg Television and The Obama White House.

This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Isabella Podwinski and Justin Bergman. Mixing by Dan Semo and theme music by Neeta Sarl.