Two Victorian polls have the Coalition leading Labor, with One Nation down

With less than four months until the Victorian election, two polls that were taken after last week’s change of premier have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by 52–48 or 53–47. One Nation’s primary vote has dropped 3–5 points since June to be at 22% in both polls.

In federal polls, a Redbridge poll had the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition surging six points since late June to 53%. I believe this is a record high for the right vote in any poll this term.

However, in Morgan the right vote was unchanged since the previous week at 47.5%, suggesting Redbridge is an outlier.

Two Victorian polls have Coalition leading and One Nation down

The Victorian election is in late November. There are two Victorian polls that were both conducted after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier on July 28.

A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 28 to August 1 from a sample of 1,014, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up four since the late June Redbridge poll), Labor 23% (down three), One Nation 22% (down five), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 11% (up three).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 53–47, a one-point gain for Labor.

Carroll’s net favourability was -15 (29–14 unfavourable). This is a large improvement on Allan’s -42. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was steady at +13 (33–20 favourable). Pauline Hanson’s net favourability with Victorians was down eight points to -17 (51–34 unfavourable). Wilson led Carroll as preferred premier by 32–19.

A Freshwater poll for The Herald Sun, conducted July 31 to August 3 from a sample of 1,020, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up three since an early June Freshwater poll), Labor 25% (up two), One Nation 22% (down three), the Greens 14% (steady) and all Others 9% (down two).

The Coalition led Labor by 52–48 after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor.

Carroll’s net favourability was -7 (29–22 unfavourable), much better than Allan’s -45 in this poll (63–18 unfavourable). Wilson’s was up three points to +18 (39–21 favourable). Wilson led as preferred premier by 48–27 (49–25 vs Allan in June). By 47–31, respondents trusted Wilson and the Coalition more than Carroll and Labor.

These polls suggest the Victorian election is moving back towards a standard two-party contest as One Nation and Hanson’s ratings with Victorians both slide. Wilson’s popularity and an “it’s time” factor after nearly 12 years of Labor government are helping the Coalition.

While Labor is behind, the Coalition’s two-party leads are not at blowout margins. With Allan gone, Labor has some chance to recover, or to win a majority of seats on a minority of the two-party vote.

Last Wednesday, I said legislation to scrap group ticket voting in Victoria’s upper house should pass both houses last week. While this legislation passed the lower house last Wednesday, upper house passage has been delayed until the August 11–13 parliamentary session. Analyst Kevin Bonham covered this.

Federal Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 27–30 from a sample of 1,001, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote (up two since the late June Redbridge poll), Labor 29% (down one), the Coalition 22% (up four), the Greens 10% (down four) and all Others 8% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a three-point gain for One Nation. The Coalition led Labor by 52–48, a six-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50–50, a five-point gain for the Coalition.

Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was down one point to -19, Hanson’s was steady at =10 and Angus Taylor’s was up three points to -6. Former Liberal PM John Howard’s net favourability was +22. In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 32% (down one), Hanson 24% (up one) and Taylor 15% (up four).

Combining issue scores for One Nation and the Coalition against Labor and the Greens, the right led the left on cost of living by 41–28, healthcare by 38–35, housing by 37–28, crime by 47–23, immigration by 57–23, the economy by 45–28, national security by 45–25 and tax reform by 40–27.

The left’s one lead was on climate change, by 44–25. There has been movement to the right on the issues, including their first lead in this poll on healthcare.

Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll, conducted July 27 to August 2 from a sample of 1,531, gave Labor 27.5% of the primary vote (steady since the July 20–26 Morgan poll), One Nation 24% (down 1.5), the Coalition 23.5% (up 1.5), the Greens 15% (up one) and all Others 10% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. They led the Coalition by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 52.5–47.5.

Respondent preferences are more volatile from poll to poll, but Morgan has usually had Labor further ahead of the Coalition by respondent preferences than using the 2025 election flows.

UK Labour easily holds Greater Manchester mayoralty at byelection

Owing to Andy Burnham’s June 18 election to the UK parliament, a byelection occurred last Thursday for his former office of Greater Manchester mayor. Labour defeated the populist right Reform by 66.3–33.7 after preferences, with their primary vote down 16.3 points from Burnham’s 63.4% in 2024. I covered this for The Poll Bludger.

Since Burnham became PM on July 20, Labour’s vote in national polls has increased, and they’ve taken a 0.2-point lead over Reform in the Election Maps UK aggregate.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.