Special DemosAU poll has Labor well short of a parliamentary majority

A special DemosAU poll has Labor winning 68 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, well short of the 76 needed for a majority. One Nation is on 60 seats, the Coalition 13, the Greens three and Others six.

In last week’s Morgan poll, One Nation was down 5.5 points to 22.5%. Morgan has recently been volatile regarding One Nation’s vote.

Federal redistributions have been finalised in three states and territories, and there are polls of New South Wales and the ACT.

DemosAU MRP poll

Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls use modelling and large sample sizes to estimate the outcome of each House of Representatives seat if an election were held now. Long fieldwork periods mean they can’t be used to infer recent poll trends.

A DemosAU MRP poll for Capital Brief, conducted from May 27 to July 11 from a sample of 9,343, gave Labor a point estimate of 68 of the 150 House seats (down 15 since the January to March DemosAU MRP poll), One Nation 60 (up eight), the Coalition 13 (up four), the Greens three (up two) and all Others six (up one).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are required. If this poll’s results were reflected at an election, Labor would lose its majority, with One Nation and the Coalition combined leading Labor in seats by 73–68. One Nation would have a good chance to form government.

Seat ranges in this MRP poll were 60–72 seats for Labor, 53–66 for One Nation, 11–22 for the Coalition, 1–5 for the Greens and 3–7 for all Others.

National primary votes were 30% One Nation (up three since the previous MRP), 26% Labor (down three), 21% Coalition (steady), 13% Greens (up one) and 10% for all Others (down one).

Morgan poll volatile, with One Nation down this time

A national Morgan poll, conducted July 13–19 from a sample of 1,679, gave Labor 27.5% of the primary vote (steady since the July 6–12 Morgan poll), the Coalition 23% (up three), One Nation 22.5% (down 5.5), the Greens 14% (up 1.5) and all Others 13% (up one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 55–45, a 2.5-point gain for Labor. They led the Coalition by 56–44, a two-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

Morgan’s polls have been volatile recently on the One Nation vote. Since a peak of 31.5% in mid-June, One Nation slumped nine points in two weeks, rebounded 5.5 points in the July 6–12 poll, then lost all of that gain in this poll.

Federal redistributions in SA, Tasmania and the ACT

This month, the electoral commission has finalised the redistributions of House of Representatives seats in South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT. These redistributions were needed as it’s been more than seven years since the last redistribution of those jurisdictions. In total, these changes affect boundaries for 18 of the 150 House seats.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said there have been only minor changes in SA (ten seats) and the ACT (three seats). In the ACT, Labor won Bean by just 50.3–49.7 against a teal independent at the 2025 election. Green estimates Labor’s margin has narrowed to 50.2–49.8.

In Tasmania (five seats), there have been major changes to three seats, but they don’t greatly affect the two-party Labor vs Liberal margins. The biggest change is in Lyons, where Labor’s margin over the Liberals increases from 61.6–38.4 to 62.7–37.3.

Green said in June that, based on population data, there would be no change to state House seat numbers at the next election. But in addition to the changed boundaries for SA, Tasmania and the ACT, Queensland (30 seats) will have a redistribution.

NSW Resolve poll: One Nation gains from Labor and Coalition drops

The New South Wales election is in March 2027. A Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal June and July Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down three since the May Resolve poll), One Nation 25% (up three), the Coalition 23% (down three), the Greens 11% (up one), independents 8% (up two) and others 4% (steady).

Since Resolve began polling in 2021, this is a record low for the Coalition and an equal record low for Labor.

No two-party estimate was provided, but analyst Kevin Bonham says Labor leads by over 55–45 against both the Coalition and One Nation. With NSW using optional preferential voting, the split in the right vote between One Nation and the Coalition helps Labor.

Labor incumbent Chris Minns led Liberal leader Kellie Sloane by 36–16 as preferred premier (38–18 previously).

On shark attacks, by 62–28 respondents thought drones were enough to combat them. On behaviour changes after recent shark attacks, 51% said they wouldn’t change as they don’t swim in the ocean much anyway, 24% would still swim but be more careful, 8% significantly decrease swimming and 11% won’t change their behaviour.

DemosAU ACT poll has One Nation gaining from Liberal slump

A DemosAU and Premier National poll of the ACT, conducted July 2–16 from a sample of 979, gave Labor 32% of the vote (34.1% at the 2024 ACT election), the Liberals 21% (33.5%), One Nation 14% (did not contest in 2024), the Greens 11% (12.2%), independents 19% (12.9%) and others 3% (7.3%). The ACT uses a proportional system for its elections, so a two-party estimate is not applicable.

Independent voters supported a Labor over a Liberal government by 42–18. One Nation voters supported a Liberal government by 41–7, while Greens voters supported Labor by 65–6.

Labor Chief Minister Andrew Barr’s net positive score was -5 (38% negative, 33% positive). Liberal leader Mark Parton’s was net zero (26% both positive and negative). Greens leader Jo Clay’s was -9 (29% negative, 20% positive). Barr led Parton as preferred chief minister by 46–32.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.