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Labour has obliterated Reform’s poll lead

πŸ“° The Canary πŸ• July 28, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Andy Burnham of Labour, Nigel Farage of Reform UK, and a YouGov poll

Now that Keir Starmer has gone, the much anticipated β€˜Burnham Bounce’ seems to have materialised. If Andy Burnham can keep this momentum going for Labour, it will be bad news for Reform UK and the Green Party.

Labour turns a corner

The above poll is from More in Common. For reference, this was where their polling had Labour in May β€” justΒ  weeks after Starmer’s government suffered the disastrous local elections:

Speaking of the local elections, this was how things went for Labour:

And this was how things went for Labour earlier in the year in the Gorton & Denton by-election:

Clearly, things were not going well for Labour under Starmer. The question was whether the party’s fortunes would improve under another leader.

While we still have doubts about the long-term viability of the Burnham project, it’s obvious he’s doing enough to win back voters right now. He’s also doing it at a time when Reform UK and Nigel Farage are facing multiple ongoing scandals, including:

Our problems with Reform go well beyond the financial issues too. This is a far-right party that has normalised anti-migrant hatred among a significant portion of the electorate. Reform proved so successful on this front that Starmer’s Home Office began copying Farage’s homework, with Burnham continuing that trend.

Burnham’s problems go deeper than this too, as we’ve reported:

It also seems clear that the moderate tinkering Burnham is proposing won’t notably change people’s lives. This will ultimately be a problem because people’s quality of life has dropped significantly over the past few years, and unless that reverses, people will continue to rebel against the government of the day.

Contrary to all this, Burnham could potentially find a project that wins enough support to secure another election. The much-needed National Care Service he’s currently hinting at could be such a project. It could also be another of his many U-turns.

2029

The More in Common poll isn’t the only one showing a Burnham Bounce (or a Reform recession). Check out this from YouGov:

For reference, this was where YouGov had the parties after the local elections:

You can’t read too much into any given poll and pollsters can’t predict the future. What they can do, however, is demonstrate the shifting fortunes of the political parties. And clearly, in this moment, people are drifting away from Reform and the Greens and over to Labour.

We’ve got doubts about Burnham’s ability to maintain this, but if he can pull off the National Care Service, he could certainly last far longer than his predecessor.

Featured image via the Canary

By Willem Moore

πŸ”— View Original Source
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