Poll shows big movements in the Greater Manchester mayor race

New polling has come out for the Greater Manchester mayor race, and it’s showing some significant movements:

A new poll has just dropped for Greater Manchester.

Labour – 25%
Greens – 15%
Reform – fighting a bin in Clacton

Sign up to our actions days to help get Geraldine Coggins elected Mayor of Greater Manchester. pic.twitter.com/DolJ8JKpxo

— The Green Party (@TheGreenParty) July 13, 2026

Does this show that the Greens are on a path to victory?

Greater Manchester mayor race

Admittedly, Zack Polanski is being a bit cheeky by not showing the overall polling, which looks like this:

POLL | Greater Manchester Mayor:

Lab: 38% ( -25 )
Grn: 22% ( +15 )
Ref: 19% ( +12 )
Res: 9% ( +9 )
Con: 8% ( -2 )
Lib: 3% ( -1 )

Result after 2nd votes:

Lab: 64%
Grn: 36%

Poll: FindOutNow, 7 – 13 July
—
( +/- vs 2024 Mayoral election ) pic.twitter.com/CyGaevSzUL

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) July 13, 2026

Clearly, the Labour Party has a significant lead. What the pluses and minuses show is the difference between polling today and the results in the last mayoral election. This highlights that Labour has lost 25 whole percentage points (a quarter of all possible voters).

What the Greens are hoping is that this decrease is just the beginning, and that the party will continue to lose ground over the coming weeks – much like how the Tories shed voters in the 2017 general election.

Here’s what Polanski said in the video above:

I’m in Camden right now, Holborn and St Pancras, but I’m actually thinking about Greater Manchester, because a new poll just dropped.

The Labour Party down 25 [percentage points]; the Green Party up 15 [percentage points], and Reform totally out of it, because they’ve all run off to Clacton to fight a bin.

As we know, Reform has seemingly abandoned the Greater Manchester race, having summoned its minions to defend Farage in his pointless Clacton by-election:

To be fair to Reform, pulling out of Manchester was the smart choice. They would have lost anyway. Now they have a tactical excuse. “We were fighting the bin” isn’t the best. But it’s something. https://t.co/015RIm3nPx

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) July 13, 2026

Polanski ended:

Look, what this poll shows is the Green Party and Geraldine Coggins can be the next mayor of Greater Manchester. So if you support the Green Party, sign up to an Action Day, get involved, and let’s make sure we win this election.

This is how the Greens’ national polling looks right now by the way:

Support for the Greens with YouGov is now back up to where it was just before the May elections (15%), after briefly plunging to 13% following Starmer’s resignation.

With everyone fully aware that Burnham is set to become Prime Minister, voters seem unenthused thus far.

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) July 14, 2026

Disappointment with Burnham could be the Green Party’s secret weapon. It could also explain why Burnham is keeping a pretty low profile right now. As the former Greater Manchester mayor, you’d think he’d be all over this race – encouraging Mancunians to embrace his successor. Instead, he’s slithering around doing stuff like this:

Andy Burnham, Britain’s next prime minister, voted in favour of home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s authoritarian immigration bill last night.

He did so even after more than 80 Labour backbenchers wrote to warn him that the party is “losing progressive voters” due to Mahmood’s… pic.twitter.com/CPmDoFfvBd

— Novara Media (@novaramedia) July 14, 2026

The above elicited the following response from the Greens’ mayoral candidate Geraldine Coggins:

She said Craig should “stand up for what is right”, celebrate immigration and “treat some of the most vulnerable people in our communities with dignity and humanity.”

“We are so much better than this in Manchester,” she added

— Kate Nicholson (@nicholson_kate1) July 14, 2026

Voter migration

Burnham is shaping up to be Starmer 2.0. This is bad news for Labour, because Starmer drove away voters in droves:

Top five reasons for abandoning Labour, among those who’ve switched to the Greens

Labour has been too right-wing: 44%
Cost of living not improved: 29%
Not delivered on promises: 25%
Labour’s stance on Gaza: 23%
Lack any sense of direction: 22%https://t.co/CaMjALwCHs pic.twitter.com/fNeWK7nSBK

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 13, 2026

No doubt many of the voters who left Labour live in Greater Manchester; the question is how many more will abandon the party before the votes are in?

Featured image via the Canary

By Willem Moore