Two new polls show drop in support for One Nation and the Coalition

In two new polls taken in the week after Pauline Hanson’s June 17 National Press Club address, support for One Nation and the Coalition combined is down three points to 46% in Newspoll and four points to 47% in Redbridge.

Support for Labor and the Greens combined is up five points to 46% in Newspoll and four points to 44% in Redbridge. In Redbridge’s respondent allocated two-party estimate, Labor’s lead over One Nation has surged five points to 56–44.

Hanson’s net favourability in Redbridge slumped ten points to -10, while Angus Taylor’s net approval in Newspoll was down ten points to -20.

Last week’s polls were partly conducted after Hanson’s address, but they were contradictory, with Morgan showing a gain for the right while DemosAU had the right down. It’s plausible that damage to the right from Hanson’s address has taken time to sink in.

Newspoll

A national Newspoll, conducted June 22–25 from a sample of 1,235, gave Labor 33% of the primary vote (up three since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago), One Nation 29% (down two), the Coalition 17% (down one to a new record low in Newspoll), the Greens 13% (up two) and all Others 8% (down two).

No two-party estimate was given, but there would be large movement in Labor’s favour with the combined One Nation and Coalition vote down three points and the combined Labor and Greens vote up five points.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval gained seven points to -17 (57% dissatisfied, 40% satisfied), off his record low in the previous Newspoll. Taylor’s net approval slumped ten points to a new low of -20 (51% dissatisfied, 31% satisfied).

The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since he became PM. The plus signs show the individual polls and a trend line has been fitted. Albanese has been at -15 or below since the late February Newspoll.

For the first time Newspoll asked about Hanson’s ratings, finding her at -3 net approval (49% dissatisfied, 46% satisfied).

In the standard better PM question, Albanese led Taylor by 47–36 (44–38 previously). In a three-way forced choice question, Albanese had 49%, Hanson 31% and Taylor 20%. When Taylor’s supporters were asked to choose between Albanese and Hanson, Albanese led Hanson by 57–43.

Asked what was most important, 54% said their preferred party had clear and realistic policies, 23% cited the leader’s character and values and 21% said they understand people like me. Among One Nation voters, understanding people like me had 38% (13–14% with Labor and Coalition voters). Policies had 61–63% with Labor and Coalition voters, but only 42% with One Nation voters.

Redbridge poll: Labor greatly increases two-party leads

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted June 22–26 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up two since the late May Redbridge poll), One Nation 29% (down two), the Coalition 18% (down two), the Greens 14% (up two) and all Others 9% (steady).

With the four-point drop for the combined Coalition and One Nation vote going directly to Labor and the Greens, Labor’s respondent allocated two-party lead against One Nation blew out from 51–49 to 56–44.

Labor also gained three points against the Coalition for a 54–46 lead. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 55–45, a three-point gain for Labor.

Pauline Hanson’s net favourability slumped ten points to -10, her worst in this poll since last December, and Barnaby Joyce’s was down seven points to -24. Taylor’s was also down five points to -9, while Albanese’s was up one point to -18 and Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ was steady at -18.

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 33% (up two), Hanson 23% (down two) and Taylor 11% (down three).

Combining One Nation and the Coalition against the combined Labor and Greens issue ratings, the right led on cost of living by 35–32, housing affordability by 31–30, immigration by 49–23, crime by 39–25 and economic management by 36–31. The left led on healthcare by 40–28. The left has made gains on these issues.

SA DemosAU poll

DemosAU and Ace Strategies have the first South Australian state poll since the March election. Conducted May 29 to June 15 from a sample of 931, it gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (37.5% at the election), One Nation 26% (22.9%), the Liberals 18% (18.9%), the Greens 13% (10.4%) and all Others 8% (10.3%).

Labor led One Nation after preferences by 56–44, compared with the pollster’s estimate of 58.1–41.9 to Labor at the election.

Compared with DemosAU’s final pre-election poll, Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas’ net positive score was down seven points to +22 (43% positive, 21% negative).

Liberal leader Ashton Hurn’s was down three points to -3 (24% negative, 21% positive). One Nation SA leader Cory Bernardi’s was down five points to -21 (41% negative, 20% positive). Malinauskas led Hurn as preferred premier by 51–20 (previously 56–21).

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.